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Big news: China beat Canada this morning, which didn't exactly throw the whole field into disarray, but did (along with a victory over the Czech Republic tonight) elevate China into the melée that is the multi-way tie for (at the moment) fourth place. Germany lost twice, so after going 4-0 right out of the gate they are now 4-5, and will not make the playoffs. Pity, but their national anthem is still "Deutschland Über Alles", which gave me a nasty start when it started playing as they were the featured team this evening.
Each team has two games left. If Canada somehow loses both, and Scotland and Norway both win both of theirs, there will be a three-way tie for first place, which would be ridiculous -- but the odds of that happening are minimal at best, so let's assume Canada goes 10-1 in the round robin and everyone else is duking it out for the remaining playoff spots. If France beats Sweden and the Czech Republic -- and they should -- they'll be alive at the end of the day. USA should probably beat Switzerland (although you never know), but the odds are against their beating Canada, and if they lose either of those games they're done. Scotland can probably afford to lose one game (to Germany or Denmark), but not both, and of course it would be better if they didn't lose either. Whoever loses the China-Australia game will be finished, but that game is at 9am and each team plays Norway in one of the remaining draws tomorrow, so if they both beat Norway, then Norway and the loser of CHN-AUS will be tied for -- look, it's all quite complicated, and will be much easier to predict tiebreaker hell after two of tomorow's three draws.
So after tomorrow it is likely that Canada will be 10-1 and USA will be no better than 6-5, and certain that either Australia or China will be out of the running -- leaving no more than five contenders for four playoff spots. In that scenario, the only way we will face tiebreaker hell is if there is a three-way tie for fourth place, because that involves two tiebreakers. If there is a simple two-way tie for fourth, there's only one TB; if there's a tie for second and a tie for fourth, the second-place tie-member who lost the head-to-head match finishes third, and there's one TB for fourth. Oh, okay, if there's a three-way tie for second, and it's circular (A def. B, B def. C, C def. A in the round robin), then there are two tiebreakers.
In the bizarre and unlikely scenario that Canada loses both games tomorrow, that would leave them with an 8-3 record; suppose Scotland and Norway both win out, they finish 8-3 as well; if France wins both their games, they will be 7-4; USA would in this scenario (assuming they beat Switzerland) be 7-4; and either Australia or China would be no better than 6-5 (because Norway had to beat them), and out of it. In that case, Canada is the winner of the circular tie (having defeated both SCO and NOR in the round robin), Scotland comes second (having defeated Norway), Norway comes third, and France and USA play a tiebreaker for fourth. But if Canada loses twice, Scotland wins twice, and Norway defeats only the loser of CHN-AUS, then Canada and Scotland are both 8-3, Norway and the winner of CHN-AUS and France and the USA are all 7-4. In that case, Canada finishes first, Scotland second, and the rest are in a four-way tie for two places, which involves at least two tiebreakers in combinations that I'm not sure of right now.
But like I said, bizarre and unlikely. Still: tomorrow will be interesting.
Whee!
Each team has two games left. If Canada somehow loses both, and Scotland and Norway both win both of theirs, there will be a three-way tie for first place, which would be ridiculous -- but the odds of that happening are minimal at best, so let's assume Canada goes 10-1 in the round robin and everyone else is duking it out for the remaining playoff spots. If France beats Sweden and the Czech Republic -- and they should -- they'll be alive at the end of the day. USA should probably beat Switzerland (although you never know), but the odds are against their beating Canada, and if they lose either of those games they're done. Scotland can probably afford to lose one game (to Germany or Denmark), but not both, and of course it would be better if they didn't lose either. Whoever loses the China-Australia game will be finished, but that game is at 9am and each team plays Norway in one of the remaining draws tomorrow, so if they both beat Norway, then Norway and the loser of CHN-AUS will be tied for -- look, it's all quite complicated, and will be much easier to predict tiebreaker hell after two of tomorow's three draws.
CAN 8-1 (remaining opponents: Switzerland, USA) SCO 6-3 (remaining opponents: Germany, Denmark) NOR 6-3 (remaining opponents: China, Australia) FRA 5-4 (remaining opponents: Sweden, Czech Republic) AUS 5-4 (remaining opponents: China, Norway) USA 5-4 (remaining opponents: Switzerland, Canada) CHN 5-4 (remaining opponents: Australia, Norway) DEN 4-5 (remaining opponents: Germany, Scotland) GER 4-5 (remaining opponents: Denmark, Scotland) SUI 2-7 (remaining opponents: Canada, Sweden) SWE 2-7 (remaining opponents: France, Czech Republic) CZE 2-7 (remaining opponents: France, Sweden)
So after tomorrow it is likely that Canada will be 10-1 and USA will be no better than 6-5, and certain that either Australia or China will be out of the running -- leaving no more than five contenders for four playoff spots. In that scenario, the only way we will face tiebreaker hell is if there is a three-way tie for fourth place, because that involves two tiebreakers. If there is a simple two-way tie for fourth, there's only one TB; if there's a tie for second and a tie for fourth, the second-place tie-member who lost the head-to-head match finishes third, and there's one TB for fourth. Oh, okay, if there's a three-way tie for second, and it's circular (A def. B, B def. C, C def. A in the round robin), then there are two tiebreakers.
In the bizarre and unlikely scenario that Canada loses both games tomorrow, that would leave them with an 8-3 record; suppose Scotland and Norway both win out, they finish 8-3 as well; if France wins both their games, they will be 7-4; USA would in this scenario (assuming they beat Switzerland) be 7-4; and either Australia or China would be no better than 6-5 (because Norway had to beat them), and out of it. In that case, Canada is the winner of the circular tie (having defeated both SCO and NOR in the round robin), Scotland comes second (having defeated Norway), Norway comes third, and France and USA play a tiebreaker for fourth. But if Canada loses twice, Scotland wins twice, and Norway defeats only the loser of CHN-AUS, then Canada and Scotland are both 8-3, Norway and the winner of CHN-AUS and France and the USA are all 7-4. In that case, Canada finishes first, Scotland second, and the rest are in a four-way tie for two places, which involves at least two tiebreakers in combinations that I'm not sure of right now.
But like I said, bizarre and unlikely. Still: tomorrow will be interesting.
Whee!
